Yong-Jae Moon
NASA GSFC & Kyung Hee University, Korea
How to Predict Space Weather using Solar Data
Space weather is the concept of changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space, mainly caused by solar activity. Space weather monitoring and forecast models are essential for minimizing some disasters associated with astronauts, satellites and communications. We are developing empirical space weather (geomagnetic storms, solar proton events, and solar flares) forecast models based on solar information. These models have been set up with the concept of probabilistic forecast using historical events. Major findings can be summarized as follows. First, we present a storm probability map depending on CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) parameters as well as contingency tables between prediction and observation with their statistical parameters. Second, we suggest a new geoeffective CME parameter, earthward direction parameter, and demonstrate its importance in terms of the forecast of geomagnetic storms. Third, the importance of solar magnetic field orientation for storm occurrence is examined. Fourth, a new proton event forecast method depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) is being developed. Fifth, we are developing a solar flare forecast model depending on sunspot classification, its area, and its area change (as a proxy of flux emergence).