SPACE AND COSMIC RAY PHYSICS SEMINAR

University of Maryland
Atlantic Building, Room 2400
4:30 PM Monday, April 18, 2011
Coffee, Tea & Snacks 4:15-4:30 PM

Yong-Jae Moon
NASA GSFC & Kyung Hee University, Korea
How to Predict Space Weather using Solar Data

Space weather is the concept of changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space, mainly caused by solar activity. Space weather monitoring and forecast models are essential for minimizing some disasters associated with astronauts, satellites and communications. We are developing empirical space weather (geomagnetic storms, solar proton events, and solar flares) forecast models based on solar information. These models have been set up with the concept of probabilistic forecast using historical events. Major findings can be summarized as follows. First, we present a storm probability map depending on CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) parameters as well as contingency tables between prediction and observation with their statistical parameters. Second, we suggest a new geoeffective CME parameter, earthward direction parameter, and demonstrate its importance in terms of the forecast of geomagnetic storms. Third, the importance of solar magnetic field orientation for storm occurrence is examined. Fourth, a new proton event forecast method depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) is being developed. Fifth, we are developing a solar flare forecast model depending on sunspot classification, its area, and its area change (as a proxy of flux emergence).


Sponsored by: Department of Physics and the Institute for Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland. For information call Victoria at (301) 405-4811 or go to the UMD Space Physics group seminar web site.

There is free parking after 4:00 PM in lot B (the big parking garage across the street from the ATL building). There are a limited number of spaces in lot Q next to the new ATL wing with free parking after 4PM even when there is a basketball game on campus.